A Voice of Reason: Sane Views for a Crazy World

March 1, 2007

Bush in ’08? Not W Jeb

Filed under: Election '08,General,Iraq,Politics,Primaries,Republican — avoiceofreason @ 3:04 am

Quin Hillyer analyzed the possibility of a late entrance by Florida’s Governor Jeb Bush in 2008.

The analysis is that the frontloaded nature of the early primaries in ’08 could allow Jeb to enter the race as a “white knight”.

The scenario looks something like this:
McCain wins Arizona and California (the move of its mega delegates up will impact the race) with the possibility of grabbing another.

Romney grabs New Hampshire, Michigan, Colorado and Utah

Giuliani takes the prize in Florida, Illinois, New Jersey and Tennesse.

Brownbeck if around takes his native Kansas and Huckabee does the same in Arkansas

The result is that the pivotal South Carolina primary has lost a great deal of its thunder, and that no candidate due to the dates the primaries are held is viewed as a front-runner.  Into this morass of confusion – enter Jeb.  Obviously, he would enjoy a certain edge in South Carolina, and perhaps the excitement of his entrance will create a stir in the Party.  This late entry may also benefit by picking up the delegates from those would be nominees that have seen the writing on the wall, or the lack of Benjamin’s in their coffers, and their delegates go to the late entrant.

Could this happen?  It is possible, but there are a good deal many obstacles to this scenario.  The first is the very real prospect that the GOP may be running “away” from the President.  If the primaries are held in the climate that currently holds true in our nation, that is most certainly the case.  The other idea is that Americans don’t like the Presidency being seen as a “Family Business”.  Which may be true, but don’t tell Senator Clinton about that!

The real thing that must transpire for this to have ANY possibility of occurring is that Iraq must be settled by the primaries.  If that happens due to the success of the surge, expect those in Senator McCain’s camp to let them know full well that he is the only one who is fully behind this, and putting his political capital where his mouth is.  This seems to be more of a Conservative *** dream.  Then again, I like the Governor a great deal, but I kind of think the country needs a break from the Bushes.  No offense to W or Jeb.

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4 Comments »

  1. While I mean all possible offense to the Bushes, I don’t think Jeb or any other Bush has a chance in hell. In fact, I think GW Bush has put the GOP at a great disadvantage for years to come.

    I feel the same about the Clintons, have had enough of them too. GW Bush couldn’t have set this up any better if he meant to destroy conservatism and its representation within the conservative party. I won’t even use the word conservative to describe my views, anymore.

    Comment by Jason357 — March 1, 2007 @ 4:25 am | Reply

  2. Well, I don’t think it is too likely either, but hey you got to look around and find something sexy out there!

    If I had to put my last $100 on who gets the nod I’d say Rudy, but I’ve been saying that for close to a year now.

    Comment by avoiceofreason — March 1, 2007 @ 4:31 am | Reply

  3. Since 1981, there has been either a Bush or Clinton in the Presidency or Vice Presidency of this great nation. With all due respect to the current President, I firmly think its time for a change.

    Comment by NJMccain — March 3, 2007 @ 6:42 pm | Reply

  4. No disagreement here.

    Comment by avoiceofreason — March 3, 2007 @ 9:46 pm | Reply


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