The analysis is that the frontloaded nature of the early primaries in ’08 could allow Jeb to enter the race as a “white knight”.
The scenario looks something like this:
McCain wins Arizona and California (the move of its mega delegates up will impact the race) with the possibility of grabbing another.
Romney grabs New Hampshire, Michigan, Colorado and Utah
Giuliani takes the prize in Florida, Illinois, New Jersey and Tennesse.
Brownbeck if around takes his native Kansas and Huckabee does the same in Arkansas
The result is that the pivotal South Carolina primary has lost a great deal of its thunder, and that no candidate due to the dates the primaries are held is viewed as a front-runner. Into this morass of confusion – enter Jeb. Obviously, he would enjoy a certain edge in South Carolina, and perhaps the excitement of his entrance will create a stir in the Party. This late entry may also benefit by picking up the delegates from those would be nominees that have seen the writing on the wall, or the lack of Benjamin’s in their coffers, and their delegates go to the late entrant.
Could this happen? It is possible, but there are a good deal many obstacles to this scenario. The first is the very real prospect that the GOP may be running “away” from the President. If the primaries are held in the climate that currently holds true in our nation, that is most certainly the case. The other idea is that Americans don’t like the Presidency being seen as a “Family Business”. Which may be true, but don’t tell Senator Clinton about that!
The real thing that must transpire for this to have ANY possibility of occurring is that Iraq must be settled by the primaries. If that happens due to the success of the surge, expect those in Senator McCain’s camp to let them know full well that he is the only one who is fully behind this, and putting his political capital where his mouth is. This seems to be more of a Conservative *** dream. Then again, I like the Governor a great deal, but I kind of think the country needs a break from the Bushes. No offense to W or Jeb.