A Newsweek Poll which ran last Wednesday and Thursday has Rudi Giuliani’s lead in the Republican pre-primary phase increasing over Sen. McCain and former Governor Mitt Romney. The poll of 1,202 adults reports Rudi’s lead growing, although many who lent their support to the former NYC mayor were not overly familiar with his moderate positions within social issues. However, most registered Republicans when informed of these positions still reported they would vote for him. This poll marks a major turnaround since Newsweek’s last poll in January, when Giuliani’s slim four point lead put him in a statistical dead heat with the Arizona Senator.
The same poll also showed that Senator Obama is creeping closer to Senator Clinton. From a seventeen point deficit in January, Obama has closed to within fourteen points. In a potential national matchup Mayor Giuliani is reported in a dead heat with Senator Clinton and former Senator Edwards, and enjoys a five point lead over Sen. Obama.
I must be a prophet. I had said just yesterday that Rudy will hold 60% of the vote by the Summer, and he’s within striking distance of that now. More than likely his appearance at CPAC will only solidify his position and weaken that of Senator McCain, who chose not to attend the conference. As Conservatives hear more of America’s Mayor they will likely be won over to him by the huge positives he states to their other causes such as national security and Iraq policies. Also, expect Mr. Guiliani’s positions to be clarified – or to be postured in such a way that Conservatives will find them more acceptable. An example would be policies on judicial appointments with regards to abortion.