Probably most here enjoy reading the polls, or at least have some passing interest in them as the measuring device of sentiment. Being a student in a doctoral program, I am learning that survey research is truly an art, and one of the most important aspects of a poll or any survey is the wording of a question. Framing a question in a certain way can lead to results which make your survey or poll have wildly different results. However, let’s take a look at some of the polls which may be of interest to you.
Nearly twice as many feel the show American Idol is getting worse (28%) compared to those who think it is getting better (15%). However, the largest group, 38% felt the show was about the same in quality.
Comment: I’ve never watched this show, and don’t plan to do so.
President Bush’s job approval is at 39%.
If I were Mr. Bush I’d be smiling. Things were a lot worse for Harry Truman at this point of his Presidency, and you can reasonably argue that the issue facing the US now are more divisive than Truman’s in 1951, Korea notwithstanding.
GOP longshot candidate Sen. Brownback trails Sen. Clinton in a hypothetical head to head national election by only 5%.
Ms. Clinton may be the most divisive candidate in the nation. Among GOP voters her negatives are tremendous, and within her own party she is having to dance a tango with regard to her statements and votes on Iraq. Sen. Obama must be smiling.
Rudy’s lead over Sen. McCain is now 15%, according to Rasmussen. The largest factor that may help Giuliani is his favorable rating of 70% and a low unfavorable of 27%. This will help him against McCain who has high unfavorables. Real Clear Politics has the former NYC Mayor with an aggregate lead of 17%. However, the early primary states’ numbers are much tighter, with Giulliani holding a slender 1% lead over McCain with Mitt Romney trailing both by about 13%. The Iowa Caucas polls have Rudy with a more comfortable 5% aggregate lead over John McCain with Mitt Romney trailing by about 17%.
The huge Y factor may be someone not in the pool. Although hard right elements of the GOP want Rep. Hunter and Tancredo, and never has there been more of a pipe dream than those two candidates, who are fine as Congressman, but by Sen. Thompson. The whispers are getting louder, and Sen. Thompson according to a report by Alexander Bolton, “Thompson has told allies in recent days that he is exploring seriously a bid for president in 2008 in response to what he has described as strong encouragement from Republicans dissatisfied with the current slate of candidates. “ I think that if Sen. Thompson’s close friend John McCain starts to drop further he may enter the race. It will be interesting to see if Sen. Thompson gets a pass from the hard right of the GOP for his backing of Sen. McCain’s campaign finance reform.
Newt still is a Negative 43% positive 48% negative (Rasmussen)
I don’t think the former Speaker of the House will see these numbers going up by admitting he was involved in an extramarital affair while the Lewinsky scandal and impeachment of former President Clinton was in the national eye. Could Newt have announced, “I’m not running any more clearly”?
Sen Clinton Leads the Democratic Party Candidates. Clinton 34% Obama 26% Edwards 15%
There are a few keys in this race. The first is Iraq. If the surge works it helps Sen. Clinton and may hurt the others a bit with Blue Dogs. If Iraq tanks it hurts the former First Lady, and will likely help both Edwards and Obama. Also of note is that Al Gore is starting to show up on national polls, but faring poorly. NH and Iowa are looking good for Mrs. Clinton, where she leads by 10% and 4% respectively. One interesting note, is that John Edwards still polls best against GOP candidates in a national election poll. This has been a consistent cycle for about one month.