A Voice of Reason: Sane Views for a Crazy World

April 10, 2007

The Look of the Polls: Obama Rising, Edwards Man to Beat?

The aggregate of major polls for the Democratic and Republican Primary display no major shifts.

Giuliani’s lead remains stable at about 13% over Sen. McCain. Fred Thompson leads the pack of the second tier, although he has not yet announced his candidacy, and time may not be on his side if he wants to raise funds. Newt Gingrich, who has also not announced an intention to run is slightly behind Sen. Thompson, and former Governor Mit Romeny lags well behind the field with only 7% support.

In the Democratic corner, Sen. Clinton’s lead of 12% remains stable, as Sen. Barack’s support seems to continue to run flate. Sen. Edwards has gained some momentum, but still trails Sen. Clinton by 20%. Former VP Al Gore continues to gain modest support of 14.5%.

Rudy Giuliani holds a 3% edge over Sen. McCain in the Iowa Caucas polls, and former Sen. Edwards leads the Democratic candidates with a similar lead over Sen. Clinton. In the NH primary, Sen. McCain edges out Giulianin and Romney by a 3% margin, and Sen. Clinton enjoys an 8.5% edge over Sen. Obama, and 10% over Edwards.

However, Rasmussen Reports show a very active movement in the polls, particularly within the Democratic candidacy. According to Rasmussen, Sen. Obama has narrowed the edge of Sen. Clinton to a mere five points, and only trails former Mayor Giuliani in a hypothetical head to head election by one point. Even more interesting is that former Sen. Edwards holds a large lead in a hypothetical matchup against the former NYC mayor, with an edge of 6% in that possible matchup.

These two polls, if taken in consideration with an Opinion Dynamics Poll, may spell bad news for Sen. Clinton. Of those polled, nearly 50% said the idea of a Clinton Presidency is unappealing, with 26% of those polled saying the idea was frightening. Combined with Obama’s rise, according to Rasmussen, and Edwards surge over all GOP contenders, one must begin to wonder if the NY Junior Senator’s campaign is in trouble.

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