A Voice of Reason: Sane Views for a Crazy World

May 4, 2007

GOP Debate: Forget “Who Won” – Who Lost? Answer Fred Thompson

Well, the snapshot GOP debate is over and rather than mull over who are the winners I’ll go out on a limb, and disagree with many blogs when I make this assertion, Fred Thompson is the Big Loser. You may argue, how could he lose, he wasn’t there. If you did that, you just gave the reason. His absence here was notable, and it will hurt him.

The adage of out of sight out of mind must be remembered. There will be some likely shifting in the polls from the debate. My feeling is that Romney will pick up a few points from his anemic 10%, but where will it come from is the important question. There are a few sources, but there is no bigger source than the non candidate Fred Thompson who is around 15% in most polls, and Former Speaker Newt Gingrich who has about 8%, but I don’t think Newt is a viable candidate and he’s smart enough to know that he can’t win. He’s far too polarizing a figure.

So, that makes Fred Thompson as the most likely source to lose support, and it will go to Mit Romney who spoke articulately and clearly on a number of positions. I also think that when the dust settles, it is not likely that Giuliani will lose any ground, and will probably pick up a few points. Senator McCain is also hard to figure. On the one hand he spoke his voice, but he also seemed edgy and a bit too agressive for the format. He constantly went over his time, and I have a feeling that the base, that isn’t too enamored with him as it is, and is looking for reasons to vote against him, which may be unfortunate, I see him staying pat, but Romney closing in, and possibly losing ground to Giuliani. He could find himself in third place after this debate, which would be a disaster for his campaign.

However, former Sen. Thompson’s non participation and non announcement reinforce a perception about a dispassionate person, who does not feel a fire to run. That doesn’t bode well, as people want a Chief Executive who wants to be there.

7 Comments »

  1. However, former Sen. Thompson’s non participation and non announcement reinforce a perception about a dispassionate person, who does not feel a fire to run. That doesn’t bode well, as people want a Chief Executive who wants to be there.
    When I watched him on Hannity and Colmes the other night I got the feeling that he was going to run but still has some contractual obligations that he has to meet before he can run. I don’t think that his not being there will hurt him much if any. I think that a lot of people will still be disappointed in the “Big 3.”

    Also remember that it’s still real early and Thompson will have plenty of time to “catch-up” with the other candidates. If you look at him, he’s already running a campaign. He’s blogging, writing articles, going on TV and traveling a lot.

    Comment by LLR — May 4, 2007 @ 5:14 am | Reply

  2. Romney will gain points, and they will come from somewhere. According to polls with real people, Giuliani did well, although some would say the sample is not GOP enough, if Romney gets a bump it will be from Thompson.

    Thompson didn’t want to run for Senator, he doesn’t like campaigning. That dislike of the process will show and will hurt him.

    Comment by avoiceofreason — May 4, 2007 @ 5:16 am | Reply

  3. Thompson didn’t want to run for Senator, he doesn’t like campaigning. That dislike of the process will show and will hurt him.
    I think that I have read that before. I think that I have also ready that McCain doesn’t like campaigning and raising money too.

    Comment by LLR — May 4, 2007 @ 1:47 pm | Reply

  4. I wonder if the opposite adage is true for Fred Thompson, “not out of sight, out of mind” but rather “absence makes the heart grow fonder.” The announced candidates — well, they’ve now laid thier cards (and character) on the table and the honeymoon is over… thus giving Fred room to feed the hearts and imaginations of a fickle public. But debates in general are misleading. The format is more style than substance. It’s a unique skill to stand up before millions and articulate well, for sure. But one has to be far more skillful to lead a nation into a bright future. While McCain did not particularly shine last night, he provided the most substance in his comments and continues to provide the bedrock leadership we need to move forward as a nation.

    Comment by lorraine — May 4, 2007 @ 3:04 pm | Reply

  5. I think it’s still too early to say who’ll win or take seriously any polls. So I still think that Fred Thompson is very viable, but as far as last night goes I’d definitely say that Jim Gilmore won hands down.

    Comment by MrGreyGhost — May 4, 2007 @ 6:25 pm | Reply

  6. the jurys still out my friend..great round up though..Have a great weekend!.:)

    Comment by Angel — May 4, 2007 @ 8:14 pm | Reply

  7. Thank you!🙂

    Comment by avoiceofreason — May 4, 2007 @ 8:24 pm | Reply


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