This was an article that I found on American Thinker, but it is something that had been brewing in my own mind for more than a little while.
Prior to last Thursday’s debate, and in some areas even more afterwards, Republicans are looking towards Fred Thompson as if he is the savior of the GOP, sans white horse, but with a very good voice. Fred Thompson is in many ways a solid candidate, and this may be the best chance for him to run, if he ever will run as Father Time is creeping up on him as he does on us all.
Right now, Thompson is netting between 10% and 17% of the polls, and his support for now seems to be draining off the front runner, Rudy Giuliani. One would think that it would come off of Romney’s share, since he is probably the most Conservative of the three front runners, but two recent polls show that Thompson is taking between 4% and 6% from Rudy Giuliani, and McCain and Romney’s losses are only marginal. Whether or not this trend continues is hard to say, but the possibility is that if Thompson does enter the race he could seriously challenge Giuliani or end up splitting the Conservative elements of the Party’s vote, and propel Giuliani to an easy win.
The only problem is that this may not be the year for a Southern Conservative to be running. I’m not the only one. Richard Baeher writes,
I think Thompson is by far the least likely of the 4 major GOP candidates to be elected if nominated, assuming he decides to run. This is due to one principal factor; his Southern roots. This may not be fair, but it is the reality of the 2008 race.
The GOP has done very well with the South, and cobbled narrow electoral victories in ’00 and ’04 by a “Solid South”, Western, Mountain and some Plains’ States. However, in 2006 the Democrats made large inroads into all of these areas, and even some Southern seats. This trend bodes badly for the GOP.
By the end of this year, I think either McCain or Giuliani will emerge as the centrist alternative to Thompson or Romney, and Giuliani is the more likely of the two. In a head to head race, a conservative, such as Thompson, or Romney, for that matter, could beat Giuliani for the nomination. But Rudy is a far better candidate than Thompson for the general election.
And there is a reason why.
The GOP needs to move beyond the South to win in 2008. A candidate who can run well in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Ohio, and suburban America, is better than one who will pad the victory margin by 5% in Texas..It is how many states you win, not how much you win them by that counts
At the current time, Rudy is doing rather well in the following states, which means he is either ahead or only slightly behind, the Democratic frontrunners (Clinton and Obama) NY, NJ, PA, OH, CA, OH, MI and MD. There are a good number of electoral votes in these states, and despite protests of “liberalism” due to being where the bulk of the country is on abortion, the GOP can’t afford to put up a no contest sign over both coasts and the rust belt. The country is ready for a Centrist position, and not another Southern Conservative. No matter how good his voice sounds, or how orthodox his positioning is to the base of the GOP.